Explore the SF Fed's insights and research on monetary policy, including topics such as interest rates, forward guidance, the balance sheet, and global central banks.

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Treasury Yield Skewness is a daily indicator measuring the risks to the future outlook for interest rates, based on prices of Treasury ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Market-Based Monetary Uncertainty provides daily indicators measuring the uncertainty about future short-term interest rates based on ...

The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve. The measure is built from weekly ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

U.S. net international migration (NIM) dropped significantly in recent months after starting to decline last year from its historically high annual levels. An update of earlier San Francisco Fed ...

U.S. net international migration (NIM) grew at historically high rates over the past several years. An update of earlier San Francisco Fed analysis (Duzhak 2024), using new and revised data on the ...

Changes in overall economic conditions may affect real household income levels and also how income is distributed across households. Analysis using annual data from 1967 to 2023 shows that the adverse ...

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from ...

Keeping a stable and moderate level of inflation is important for a healthy economy. Policymakers and economists therefore need to understand not only how overall inflation is evolving, but what is ...