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Bayes' theorem, also called Bayes' rule or Bayesian theorem, is a mathematical formula used to determine the conditional probability of events. The theorem uses the power of statistics and probability ...

ABSTRACT A statistical framework is presented for the assessment of climatological trends in the frequency of rare and extreme weather events. The methodology applies to long-term records of event ...

Subjective Probability In the course of their daily lives men must constantly measure the probability of events. How these personal judgements conform to the actual laws of probability is investigated ...